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Long Story Short - An escalation of tension with Iran could cause oil prices to soar
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Tanker Attacked in the Persian Gulf; Here's why this time is different.

(Note: companies that could be impacted by the content of this article are listed at the base of the story (desktop version). This article uses third-party references to provide a bullish, bearish and balanced point of view; sources listed in the "Balanced" section)

Oil prices jumped as much as 4% on June 13th following attacks on two Japanese tankers near the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf.  The attacks occurred shortly after Shinzo Abe, the Japanese Prime Minister, had met with Iranian officials. While the source of the attack was not known, the timing and objects of the attacks seems to point toward Iran or Iranian rebels in Yemen as the likely source. The incident is one in a long history of sabotage activity in the area and threats to shut down the shipping channel. Previous incidents eventually faded into memory with oil prices returning to pre-existing levels. This time may be different.

The location of the attacks was key.  This time the attacks were near the Strait of Hormuz, the world’s busiest sea lane for oil shipment.  Almost 30% of the world’s traded oil is shipped through the Strait, mainly to destinations in Asia such as Japan, India and China.  The Strait is 60 miles across, but shipping channels are only two miles across making tankers very vulnerable to attacks from torpedoes or mines. 

Further escalation would cause oil prices to rise even more.  It is very possible that the United States will respond to the attacks by increasing its presence in the Strait.  Such a move could escalate tension in the area, as well as the likelihood of further attacks.  Should the United States respond with an aerial attack on Iran, oil prices will undoubtedly rise.  A senior Iranian military official warned on June 2nd that any rocket attack would hike up the price of oil above $100 per barrel.

The United States may be backing Iran into a corner.  Iran’s budget calls for one-third of the government’s income to come from oil and gas exports.  In November 2018, as part of a decision to exit the Iran nuclear agreement, the Trump administration announced major sanctions against Iran preventing Iran from selling oil to other countries.  However, it granted waivers to eight countries, five of which (India, China, Japan, South Korea and Turkey) exercised their waivers.  These waivers were eliminated in May.  By virtually eliminating Iran oil sales, the United States may be pushing Iran into a position in which it feels it has no option but to attack.

This has happened before and then died down.  The attacks bore similarities to sabotage activity on May 12th, which was followed by claims from Iranian officials that the Strait of Hormuz would be shut down.  In fact, Iranian officials have threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz five times in the last eight years.  Each time, the United States reacted by increasing its presence in the area and the attacks ceased.  One would have to go back to 1998 to find a significant response by the United States.  After a U.S. frigate was damaged by an Iranian mine, the United States responded by sinking or severely damaging half of Iran’s operational fleet.

Iran may be standing alone.  The United States has indicated that any attempts to close the Strait of Hormuz would be viewed as an act of war.  With the majority of oil in the Persian Gulf being shipped to India, Japan and China; the United States would have powerful allies in any conflict with Iran.  When Iran threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz in 2012, it backed off its threats after a stern warning from China’s then-premier, Wen Jiabao. 

The United States can increase oil production, if oil prices remain high.  Independent producers in the United States have identified tens of thousands of prospective drilling locations.  Some of these are economical only at higher oil prices.  Should oil prices remain at high levels, we would expect companies to increase their drilling efforts to offset any drop in supply.  This would dampen the rise in oil prices, at least domestically.

The oil price impact of the attacks will be offset by other factors.  The demand for oil has been decreasing in recent quarters in response to expectations of a global economic slowdown.  In fact, on the day of the attacks, OPEC announced that it was cutting its forecast for oil demand growth in 2019.  Further economic weakness would reduce the global demand for oil, partially offsetting any reduction in supply.

Tensions with Iran are accelerating.  And, although there is a history of tension followed by détente, this time appears to be different.  Sanctions against Iran have left the country with few options but to fight.  It seems unlikely that Iran is going to back down and agree to another nuclear accord.  At best, it may pull back from aggressive activity and hope the conflict blows over.  Under such a scenario, oil prices could remain at elevated levels for some time period with periodic spikes should the conflict escalate.

Sources:

OPEC’s oil output falls to 5-year low in May as group warns of weaker demand, CNBC, Tom DiChristopher, June 13, 2019

Explosions on two oil tankers near Iran send oil prices 2% higher, CNBC, Natasha Turek, June 13, 2019

Strait of Hormuz, International Crisis Group, June 13, 2019

Iran’s Hollow Threats to Close the Strait of Hormuz, FP News, Keith Johnson, May 5, 2019

The Strait of Hormuz is a Chokepoint Between Persian Gulf and The Arabian Sea, Thought Co., Amanda Briney, April 10, 2019

U.S. to Clamp Down on Iranian Oil Sales, Risking Rise in Gasoline Prices, The New York Times, Edward Wong and Clifford Krauss, April 21, 2019

Iran insists on boosting oil sales to stay in nuclear pact, Al Jazeera, May 13, 201

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  Research - Dyadic (DYAI) - Nasdaq Up-Listing Approved, 04/15/2019
  Research - Scorpio Bulkers (SALT) - Liquidity boost; adjusting estimates, 04/12/2019
  Research - Great Panther Silver (GPL) - Production numbers slightly lower than expected, 04/11/2019
  Research - Aurania Resources (ARU:CA) - Another promising copper target, 04/10/2019
  News - Could renewables supply 50% of all generation? How about 80%?, 04/05/2019
  Research - One Stop Systems (OSS) - Initiation of Research Coverage, 04/04/2019
  News - Stock Buybacks: Good, evil, or maybe something in between?, 04/03/2019
  Research - Prize Mining (PRZ:CA) - Behind the recent deal, 04/03/2019
  Research - Aurania Resources (ARU:CA) - Updates on copper production, 04/03/2019
  News - Macular Edema: The search for the cure continues, 04/02/2019
  Research - Trovagene (TROV) - Update on data readout, 04/02/2019
  Research - Trovagene (TROV) - Updated prostate cancer data, 04/02/2019
  Research - Sierra Metals (SMTS) - 2018 full year recap, 04/01/2019
  Research - Albany International (AIN) - Appoints new CFO, 04/01/2019
  Research - Pyxis Tankers (PXS) - 2018 financial update, 03/29/2019
  Research - Dyadic (DYAI) - 2018 full year update, 03/28/2019
  Podcast Launch: The Science of Investing in Biotechs, 03/28/2019
  A Video Introduction to Enochian Biosciences, 03/28/2019
  Official Trailer: NEW Podcast Series- Icons of Business, Leaders of Emerging Companies, 03/26/2019
  Research - Information Services (III) - Favorable risk/reward moving forward, 03/25/2019
  Research - Torchlight Energy - Strong updates on project estimates, 03/25/2019
  Research - 1-800-Flowers.com (FLWS) - Investor Day Highlights, 03/25/2019
  Research - Prize Mining (PRZ:CA) - Initiation of Research Coverage, 03/25/2019
  News - The Case for Dr. Copper: New Sources of Demand are Positive for Copper, 03/25/2019
  Research - Cumulus Media (CMLS) - Raising Price Target, 03/22/2019
  Research - Pangaea Logistics (PANL) - Business Model/Strategy Shine, 03/22/2019
  Research - Seanergy (SHIP) - What do the results show?, 03/21/2019
  Research - E.W. Scripps - Analysis of recent acquisitions, 03/21/2019
  Research - ProMIS Neurosciences (PMN:CA) - Potential opportunity in Alzheimer's , 03/21/2019
  Research - Genie Energy (GNE) - Initiation Report, 03/20/2019
  Research - E.W. Scripps (SSP) - Acquiring stations, building portfolio, 03/20/2019
  Research - Tegna (TGNA) - Acquisition highlights, 03/20/2019
  Research - Information Services (III) - 2019 growth possibilities, 03/18/2019
  Research - Tribune Publishing (TPCO) - Behind the numbers , 03/18/2019
  Research - Harte-Hanks (HHS) - The focus towards growth, 03/15/2019
  Research - Information Services (III) - Q4 review; the full story, 03/15/2019
  News - Artificial Intelligence: Can an algorithm do what you do?, 03/14/2019
  Research - Townsquare Media (TSQ) - Quarter over delivers, 03/14/2019
  Research - Tribune Publishing (TPCO) - Looking forward into 2019, 03/14/2019
  Research - KeyW (KEYW) - What will drive 2019 performance?, 03/13/2019
  Research - Townsquare Media (TSQ) - Revenues surprise, 03/13/2019
  Research - Salem Media (SALM) - Looking past the first quarter 2019, 03/13/2019
  Research - Energy Fuels (UUUU) - Updating estimates, 03/13/2019
  News - CRISPR-Cas9: Editing away sickness, 03/13/2019
  Research - Gannett (GCI) - Favorable risk/reward, 03/12/2019
  Research - Comtech Telecommunications (CMTL) - Deeper dive in 2Q19 results, 03/12/2019
  Research - Euroseas (ESEA) - Lowering Price Target, 03/12/2019
  Research - Aurania Resources (ARU:CA) - New drilling has commenced, Funding secured, 03/11/2019
  Research - Great Lakes Dredge (GLDD) - Investor Meeting Highlights, 03/11/2019
  News - Green New Deal: Environment Savior or Economy Destroyer?, 03/08/2019
  Research - McClatchy (MNI) - Outlook for 2019, 03/08/2019
  Research - Trovagene (TROV) - 2018 full year update, 03/08/2019
  News - Do We Need to Prepare for War in Space?, 03/07/2019
  Research - Eagle Shipping (EGLE) - Long-term outlook positive, 03/07/2019
  Research - Comtech (CMTL) - Exceeds 2Q quarterly expectations, 03/07/2019
  Research - Kratos Defense (KTOS) - Drone prospect takes flight, 03/07/2019
  News - DNA Data Storage: The Future of Informatics, 03/06/2019
  Research - Genco Shipping (GNK) - 4Q18 Results Surprise , 03/06/2019
  Research - E.W. Scripps (SSP) - Raising Price Target, 03/05/2019
  NobleConXV Panel - Marketing Early-Stage Natural Resource Companies to Investors, 03/05/2019
  Research - Tegna (TGNA) - Looking towards subscriber growth in 2019, 03/04/2019
  Research - Great Panther Silver (GPL) - Expectations in line, 03/04/2019
  Research - Kratos Defense (KTOS) - Acquisition announced, 03/01/2019
  Research - Gray Television (GTN) - 2018 full year results, 03/01/2019
  Research - Avino Silver (ASM) - Increasing 2019 estimates, 03/01/2019
  Research - Ducommun (DCO) - 2018, the inflection year, 03/01/2019
  News - Merger Mania Hits the Mining Space, 03/01/2019
  News - Electric Cars: Time to plug in?, 02/28/2019
  News - Could the US Have More Oil than the Saudis?!, 02/27/2019
  News - Cannabiz: Growing Like a Weed, 02/26/2019
  Research - Cumulus Media (CMLS) - Earnings preview, 02/26/2019
  News - Legalizing Sports Gambling: Place Your Bets, 02/25/2019
  News - Alzheimer’s, Cannibals, and the Scientist Who Saw the Connection, 02/22/2019
  Research - Cumulus Media (CMLS) - Raising price target, 02/14/2019
  News - High-yield bonds: Trash or Treasure?, 02/13/2019
  News - Trump vs Obama: Who did the first two years better?, 02/12/2019
  A MUST WATCH - panel of key opinion leaders - a cure for diabetes, 02/11/2019
  The business of cannabis - WATCH an industry panel break it all down, 02/11/2019
  WORTH READING - Electric Cars, OPEC Today, FED Impact, 02/11/2019
  Channelchek in Forbes - referenced as a gatekeeper for emerging growth companies, 02/11/2019
  NobleConXV Keynote Address, 02/05/2019
  NobleConXV Webcasts, 02/04/2019
  News - The Great Wall of America, 01/24/2019
  News - Is OPEC still king of oil?, 01/24/2019
  News - End of an Era: Sears Struggles to Survive, 01/23/2019
  News - Buybacks: Who benefits?, 01/21/2019
  News - Robinhood: Could it steal customers from the banks?, 12/31/2018
  News - Holiday Havoc: Why December turned into a tough time for investors, 12/27/2018
  News - The Fed raised its rates, now what?, 12/19/2018
  News - Polo-like kinases inhibitors are novel drug targets of cancer therapeutics, 12/14/2018
  News - Can manufacturing keep up with demand for biologic drugs?, 12/04/2018
  News - HIV - Could there be a cure?, 12/01/2018
  News - Gold - Trending Up?, 11/27/2018
  Welcome to Channelchek video, 11/20/2018
  News - Cancer - Harnessing the power of immune system, 11/15/2018
  News - Cancer - Gene therapy, what the future holds, 11/15/2018
  News - Alzheimer’s - The race to a better treatment, 11/15/2018
  News - Trump – Is he right to withdraw from INF?, 11/15/2018
  News - Cancer – Is combination therapy the answer?, 11/15/2018
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