The most consequential macro story of 2026 may be moving toward resolution. The United States and Iran are now describing a draft memorandum of understanding to end their three-month conflict as “largely negotiated,” and oil markets are responding decisively. West Texas Intermediate crude fell to $89.97 per barrel Wednesday and Brent dropped to approximately $95, with both benchmarks down more than 10% since President Trump called off an imminent military strike on Iran ten days ago. That is a significant and rapid repricing for a commodity that was trading above $107 as recently as last week.