Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, April 30, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP)/OUTPERFORM – First Quarter Results Above Our Estimates; Stronger Second Half Expected
Perfect (PERF)/OUTPERFORM – Q1 Revenue Growth Demonstrates Resilience
Travelzoo (TZOO)/OUTPERFORM – Off To A Solid Start
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP/$27.07 | Price Target: $31)
Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272
First Quarter Results Above Our Estimates; Stronger Second Half Expected
Rating: OUTPERFORM
First quarter financial results. Alliance reported first quarter adjusted EBITDA and earnings per unit (EPU) of $159.9 million and $0.57, respectively, compared to $238.4 million and $1.21 during the prior year period. We had projected EBITDA and EPU of $143.8 million and $0.48. While total revenue of $540.5 million was just shy of our $541.1 million estimate, we underestimated coal sales and overstated transportation revenue. Consequently, transportation expense was also overstated. Total operating expenses were $446.2 million compared to our $462.3 million forecast.
Corporate outlook for 2025 and 2026. Management’s guidance for 2025 was little changed, except for increasing the range for total coal sales tonnage, increasing expense as a percentage of oil & gas royalty revenue, depreciation expense, and lowering net interest expense expectations. For 2026, management expects the average coal sales price per ton to trend lower. Due to higher-priced, multi-contracts rolling off, the average sales price per ton could be 4% to 5% below the midpoint of ARLP’s 2025 guidance. We think planned 2025 long wall moves and actions to improve productivity and cost effectiveness could help offset lower prices.
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Perfect (PERF/$1.92 | Price Target: $5)
Patrick McCann, CFA [email protected] | (314) 724-6266
Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734
Q1 Revenue Growth Demonstrates Resilience
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid Q1 results. The company reported Q1 revenue growth of 13.4% year over year to $16.0 million, roughly in line with our estimate of $16.2 million. Adj. EBITDA of $0.9 million was better than our estimate of $0.4 million.
B2C momentum. The strong quarterly revenue growth was driven by the company’s B2C segment. Importantly, the company is in the midst of optimizing pricing for its popular beauty app subscription and recently introduced a higher margin premium subscription plan. We believe the B2C segment is poised for continued revenue growth throughout 2025.
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Travelzoo (TZOO/$16.12 | Price Target: $28)
Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler [email protected] |
Off To A Solid Start
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Reports solid Q1 results. Q1 revenues accelerated, up 5.3%, from the 2.2% decline in the fourth quarter, reflecting the early adoption of the company’s transformative migration toward a subscription model. Results were in line with expectations, with adj. EBITDA of $4.4 million and positive free cash flow generation of $3.3 million.
Revenues expected to accelerate. Management indicated that second quarter revenue growth is expected to accelerate, double the rate of the first quarter’s 5.3%. The enhanced revenue growth reflects the success of converting legacy subscribers to a paid subscription. The paid subscription began in the first quarter of 2025, with subscription revenues recognized pro-ratably over the subscription period. As such, we expect that revenue growth will accelerate as it adds subscriptions throughout the year.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, April 29, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
FAT Brands (FAT)/OUTPERFORM – April News Roundup
FAT Brands (FAT/$2.69 | Price Target: $15)
Joe Gomes, CFA [email protected] | 561-999-2262
April News Roundup
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Fazoli’s Securitization. FAT Brands amended the Fazoli’s whole business securitization credit facility. The amendments extended the repayment and call dates from January 2025 to July 2026 and from July 2023 to October 2025, respectively, while also relaxing certain covenants, providing FAT greater operational flexibility. The new agreement also permits FAT to sell off the corporate-owned Fazoli locations.
France Growth. Also, during the month, FAT announced a new partnership to expand Fatburger across France, with the opening of 30 units over the next three years, with five units expected to be opened in 2026. FAT’s partner has a vast amount of experience within the restaurant space and successfully operates their own restaurant franchise in the country.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, April 28, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
MustGrow Biologics Corp. (MGROF)/MARKET PERFORM – Reports 4Q25 Results
MustGrow Biologics Corp. (MGROF/$0.79)
Joe Gomes, CFA [email protected] | 561-999-2262
Reports 4Q25 Results
Rating: MARKET PERFORM
4Q25 Results. Revenue totaled $118.8 million, reflecting initial sales of TerraSante product. We were at $25,000. Net loss totaled $1.2 million, or a loss of $0.02/sh, in line with our estimate. For the full year, MustGrow reported revenue of $398,018 and a net loss of $4.9 Million, or a loss of $0.09/sh, also inline with our expectations.
Capital Raise. In mid-January, MustGrow raised $2.585 million of capital through the sale of convertible debentures. Combined with the $3 million of cash at year-end, we believe the Company has sufficient liquidity until significant revenue begins, which we expect this year.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, April 25, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
FreightCar America (RAIL)/OUTPERFORM – Gaining Market Share
FreightCar America (RAIL/$6.45 | Price Target: $13.5)
Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272
Gaining Market Share
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Robust first quarter order activity. During the first quarter ending on March 31, FreightCar America received orders for a total of 1,250 railcars valued at approximately $141 million. Based on the Railway Supply Institute’s American Railway Car Institute Committee (ARCI) first quarter 2025 reporting statistics, industry orders totaled 5,085 railcars, while deliveries amounted to 7,810. Freight Car’s orders represented approximately 25% of all new railcars ordered during the quarter and 36% of FreightCar America’s addressable market.
2025 corporate guidance. Railcar deliveries are expected to be in the range of 4,500 to 4,900, revenue is expected to be in the range of $530 million to $595 million, and adjusted EBITDA is expected to be in the range of $43 to $49 million. Our current 2025 estimates include railcar deliveries of 4,700 units, revenue of $562.5 million, and EBITDA of $45.4 million. While first quarter orders of 1,250 was above our estimate of 1,000, our estimate for first quarter deliveries is unchanged.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, April 24, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Cumulus Media (CMLS)/MARKET PERFORM – Not Good Foreshadowing
Cumulus Media (CMLS/$0.27)
Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler [email protected] |
Not Good Foreshadowing
Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Plans to delist. The company announced plans to move its stock from the Nasdaq to the OTC
market effective May 2nd. Cumulus received a delisting warning a month earlier from Nasdaq
for not meeting a $10 million minimum stockholders’ equity requirement. The company
determined that will not appeal given the time, effort and cost of to remain on Nasdaq.
Ticker remains CMLS. The company has applied and qualified to list on the OTC Markets’
OTCQB market tier and expects that its shares will trade at the open on May 2 under its current
trading symbol CMLS. The company indicated that it plans to continue to file periodic and other
required reports with the SEC.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, April 23, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
AZZ (AZZ)/OUTPERFORM – Better Than Expected FY 2025 Financial Results; Strong Start to FY 2026
Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT)/MARKET PERFORM – Taking Measures To Remain Listed
ONE Group Hospitality (STKS)/OUTPERFORM – A Leader in Vibe Dining, Initiating Research Coverage
ONE Group Hospitality (STKS/$2.87 | Price Target: $5)
Joe Gomes, CFA [email protected] | 561-999-2262
Hans Baldau [email protected] |
A Leader in Vibe Dining, Initiating Research Coverage
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Initiating Research Coverage. We are initiating research coverage of The ONE Group Hospitality, Inc. (NASDAQ:STKS) with an Outperform rating and a $5 price target. The ONE Group is an international restaurant company that develops and operates upscale and polished casual, high-energy restaurants and lounges and provides hospitality management services for hotels, casinos and other high-end venues both in the U.S. and internationally.
A Leader in Vibe Dining. ONE Group is a leader in the “Vibe Dining” subsegment. Vibe Dining is characterized by a quality culinary experience complimented with an engaging social scene, such as DJ’s and dancing. While not a new theme, Vibe Dining is being pushed by a generation of consumers looking for more than just food for their dollar. As a category, Vibe Dining is projected to continue to grow at above average rates.
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AZZ (AZZ/$80.06 | Price Target: $112)
Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272
Better Than Expected FY 2025 Financial Results; Strong Start to FY 2026
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Fourth quarter and full year financial results. For fiscal year (FY) 2025, AZZ reported adjusted net income of $156.8 million or $5.20 per share compared to $132.8 million or $4.53 per share during FY 2024 and our estimate of $155.9 million or $5.17 per share. Compared to FY 2024, sales increased 2.6% to $1.578 billion. AZZ generated a 24.3% gross margin as a percentage of sales compared to 23.6% during the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA increased 4.3% to $347.9 million, representing 22.0% of sales compared to 21.7% of sales in FY 2024. Adjusted net income and EPS during the fourth quarter of FY 2025 were $29.6 million and $0.98, respectively, compared to our estimates of $28.8 million and $0.95 per share.
Updating estimates. We project FY 2026 revenue, adjusted EBITDA, and adjusted EPS of $1.676 billion, $381.7 million, and $5.83 respectively. Our FY 2026 estimates reflect a gross margin of $408.7 million or 24.4% of sales. We have assumed the company accelerates debt repayment to lower interest expense to offset the reduction of equity in earnings of unconsolidated subsidiaries caused by the AVAIL JV’s sale of its Electric Products business.
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Direct Digital Holdings (DRCT/$0.55)
Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler [email protected] |
Taking Measures To Remain Listed
Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Listing requirements not met. The company initially received a notification that it was not in compliance with the Nasdaq’s minimum stockholder equity requirement in October 2024. The company subsequently submitted a plan to regain compliance in February 2025 and was granted an extension until April 16, 2025. However, on April 16, the company had not regained compliance and received a letter of determination from Nasdaq on April 17.
Letter of determination. The letter of determination stated the company did not meet the terms of its extension, due to a noncomplete capital raise that was laid out in its plan to regain compliance, and ultimately did not meet the stockholders’ equity requirement. We believe that the company is working on capital raising initiatives, which should put the company back in compliance. The Class A Common stock is scheduled to be suspended from trading at market open on April 28. The company has filed for a hearing which should delay the delisting process for at least 35 days.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, April 22, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
AZZ (AZZ)/OUTPERFORM – Adj. Fourth Quarter and Full Year Financial Results Exceed Expectations
InPlay Oil (IPOOF)/OUTPERFORM – Share Consolidation, Updating Estimates
NN (NNBR)/OUTPERFORM – Solid 1Q25 New Business Wins
V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – Some LOGCAP Extensions
AZZ (AZZ/$77.62 | Price Target: $112)
Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272
Adj. Fourth Quarter and Full Year Financial Results Exceed Expectations
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Fourth quarter and full year financial results. For fiscal year (FY) 2025, AZZ reported adjusted net income of $156.8 million or $5.20 per share compared to $132.8 million or $4.53 per share during FY 2024 and our estimate of $155.9 million or $5.17 per share. Compared to FY 2024, sales increased 2.6% to $1.578 billion. AZZ generated a 24.3% gross margin as a percentage of sales compared to 23.6% during the prior year. Adjusted EBITDA increased 4.3% to $347.9 million, representing 22.0% of sales compared to 21.7% of sales in FY 2024. Adjusted net income and EPS during the fourth quarter of FY 2025 were $29.6 million and $0.98, respectively, compared to our estimates of $28.8 million and $0.95 per share.
Debt reduction. During FY 2025, AZZ generated operating cash flow of $249.9 million and reduced debt by $110 million. Management expects to accelerate debt repayments with proceeds from the AVAIL transaction which is expected to close in the first quarter of FY 2026. We estimate FY 2026 debt repayments could approach $300 million. At the end of FY 2025, AZZ’s net leverage was below 2.5x trailing twelve months EBITDA.
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InPlay Oil (IPOOF/$5.42 | Price Target: $18)
Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau [email protected] |
Share Consolidation, Updating Estimates
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Share consolidation. As of April 21, 2025, InPlay Oil shares are trading on a post-consolidation basis, with 27,939,437 common shares outstanding. The terms of the share consolidation were one post-consolidation common share per six pre-consolidation common shares. Fractional shares resulting from the consolidation were rounded down to the nearest whole number.
Updating estimates and price target. We are updating our 2025 estimates to reflect fewer shares outstanding and lower crude oil price estimates. For 2025, we are lowering our oil and gas revenue and earnings per share estimates to C$318.7 million and C$1.34, from C$333.5 million and C$1.46, both adjusted for the share consolidation. Moreover, we have lowered our adjusted funds flow (AFF) to C$149.5 million from C$161.6 million. We are maintaining our production estimate of 18,750 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) post the Pembina acquisition, which averages 15,816 boe/d for the full-year 2025.
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NN (NNBR/$1.71 | Price Target: $6)
Joe Gomes, CFA [email protected] | 561-999-2262
Hans Baldau [email protected] |
Solid 1Q25 New Business Wins
Rating: OUTPERFORM
1Q25 New Business Wins. NN achieved 1Q25 new business wins of $16.4 million, a solid performance given the state of the economy, in our view. In the same period last year, new business wins totaled $17.2 million. NN is well on its way to meeting its 2025 goal of $65 million in new business wins.
Diversified Backlog and Pipeline. New business wins for the quarter were focused on electrical and power products, medical, non-automotive industrial products, and automotive products. Roughly half of the nearly $700 million pipeline is in these targeted areas.
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V2X (VVX/$46.83 | Price Target: $72)
Joe Gomes, CFA [email protected] | 561-999-2262
Hans Baldau [email protected] |
Some LOGCAP Extensions
Rating: OUTPERFORM
LOGCAP Extensions. V2X has been notified by the U.S. Army that it will extend the current period of performance (PoP) for the various task orders under the LOGCAP V ID/IQ contract to support U.S. military operations worldwide. The Company’s Kuwait Task Order (TO), Iraq Task Order, and INDOPACOM Task Order are scheduled to extend through June 2030. Given the size of LOGCAP V, we view this as a significant positive for the Company.
SAM.gov. According to the filing on SAM.gov, the Army sought to increase the overall PoP for the current LOGCAP performance task orders (PTOs) to match the PoPs of the aligned Set the Theater (STT) task orders. The LOGCAP STT TOs were awarded as a base year plus nine one-year option periods.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, April 21, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Aurania Resources (AUIAF)/OUTPERFORM – First Tranche of Private Placement Financing Closed
Hemisphere Energy (HMENF)/OUTPERFORM – 2024 Financial Results In line with Expectations, 2025 Outlook
Aurania Resources (AUIAF/$0.2 | Price Target: $0.55)
Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272
First Tranche of Private Placement Financing Closed
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Private placement financing. Aurania Resources Ltd. closed the first tranche of its previously announced non-brokered private placement financing of up to 5,000,000 units at a price of C$0.30 per unit for gross proceeds of up to C$1,500,000. An aggregate of 3,182,899 units were sold under the first tranche for gross proceeds of C$954,869.70. Dr. Keith Barron, CEO and a director, acquired 1,000,000 units under the offering and owns or exercises control over 47,672,635 common shares, 1,752,992 options, and 12,399,135 warrants representing 44.41% and 50.88% of the company’s issued and outstanding common shares on a non-diluted and partially diluted basis, respectively.
Terms of the offering. Each unit is composed of one common share and one common share purchase warrant. Each warrant entitles the holder to purchase one common share at an exercise price of C$0.55 for a period of 24 months following the closing of the first tranche. To accommodate demand, Aurania may increase the size of the offering by up to 25% and expects to close the remaining tranche(s) on or around April 24.
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Hemisphere Energy (HMENF/$1.27 | Price Target: $2.3)
Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau [email protected] |
2024 Financial Results In line with Expectations, 2025 Outlook
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Full-year 2024 financial results. Hemisphere Energy reported full-year net income and earnings per share of C$33.1 million and C$0.33, respectively, slightly above our estimates of C$32.3 million and C$0.32. The variance is mainly due to stronger oil pricing of $79.48, compared to our estimate of $76.31. Year-over-year, oil and natural gas revenue increased ~18% to C$79.7 million from C$67.7 million. This increase was driven by increased production and more robust pricing of 3,436 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d) and $79.48, respectively, compared to 3,125 boe/d and $74.07. Likewise, adjusted funds flow (AFF) increased 16% in 2024 to C$45.8 million from C$39.4 million in 2023. We had forecast AFF of C$45.4 million.
Updating estimates. Based on lower crude oil price estimates, we are lowering our 2025 net income and earnings per share estimates to C$30.3 million and C$0.29, respectively, from C$37.2 million and C$0.37. Additionally, we are decreasing our adjusted funds flow estimate to C$42.9 million from C$50.6 million. We are maintaining our 2025 average daily production estimate of 3,900 boe/d, an increase of ~14% over 2024.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, April 17, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Comstock (LODE)/MARKET PERFORM – Strategic Partnership with RWE Clean Energy
NN (NNBR)/OUTPERFORM – Term Loan Refi Completed
QuoteMedia Inc. (QMCI)/OUTPERFORM – A Sanguine Outlook For 2025
Comstock (LODE/$2.16)
Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau [email protected] |
Strategic Partnership with RWE Clean Energy
Rating: MARKET PERFORM
Partnership with RWE. Comstock Metals entered into a Master Services Agreement with RWE Clean Energy, the U.S. subsidiary of RWE, which operates a renewable energy portfolio of approximately 10 gigawatts. It is the third largest owner and operator of onshore wind, solar, and battery storage in the United States. Comstock Metals will provide RWE with recycling, decommissioning, and logistics services for their U.S. solar installations to ensure a zero-landfill solution for 100% of the recovered solar panel materials.
Industry-scale facility. Comstock Metals has operated a demonstration-scale solar panel recycling facility since 2024. The company generates revenue through service fees for decommissioning, tipping fees for receiving and processing end-of-life solar panels, and offtake sales of high-value recycled materials, including aluminum, copper, glass, and concentrated precious metals. Comstock expects to spend $6 million to build its first large-scale facility in 2025. The project will be commissioned in 2026 and will scale in two phases, with initial capacity of up to 50,000 tons annually by 2026, and then to 100,000 tons annually.
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NN (NNBR/$1.63 | Price Target: $6)
Joe Gomes, CFA [email protected] | 561-999-2262
Hans Baldau [email protected] |
Term Loan Refi Completed
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Term Loan Refi. NN announced the successful completion of its term loan refinancing. The new term loan has multiple improved operational features that management expects will enable the Company to improve and grow faster. Combined with the $65 million ABL refinancing announced in January, yesterday’s announcement sets the stage for a new chapter for NN, in our view.
Details. Although we are awaiting an 8-K filing to drill down into all the terms of the new financing, the term loan is $118 million, with a 2030 maturity. There is a $10 million add-on feature for certain borrowing and improved leverage and liquidity covenants. However, the interest rates are slightly higher than the previous term loan. Marathon Asset Management is the new lender.
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QuoteMedia Inc. (QMCI/$0.15 | Price Target: $0.2)
Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler [email protected] |
A Sanguine Outlook For 2025
Rating: OUTPERFORM
2024 in the rearview mirror. The company reported Q4 revenue of $4.7 million and adj. EBITDA of $0.2 million, both of which were largely in line with our estimates of $4.6 million and $0.3 million, respectively. Notably, both revenue and adj. EBITDA for 2024 decreased from the prior year, which was largely attributed to key clients facing difficulties during the year and reduced spending or discontinued services entirely.
2025 revenue outlook appears more promising. Management indicated that the Q1 revenue outlook should significantly improve, with Q1 expected to achieve the highest quarterly revenue in company’s history, near $5 million. Notably, management indicated that it is currently not affected by the geopolitical environment or the impact of tariffs. As such, it remains sanguine about the opportunity for the company to achieve at least $20 million in revenue for full year 2025.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, April 16, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
QuoteMedia Inc. (QMCI)/OUTPERFORM – Not Getting Revenue Traction
QuoteMedia Inc. (QMCI/$0.15 | Price Target: $0.26)
Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler [email protected] |
Not Getting Revenue Traction
Rating: OUTPERFORM
In-line results. The company reported Q4 revenue of $4.7 million and adj. EBITDA of $0.2 million, both of which were largely in line with our estimates of $4.6 million and $0.3 million, respectively, as illustrated in Figure #1 Q4 Results. Notably, both revenue and adj. EBITDA for 2024 decreased from the prior year, which was largely attributed to key clients facing difficulties during the year and reducing spending or discontinuing services entirely.
A difficult year. During the company’s Q3 earnings call, management highlighted the loss of a large client and indicated that some of its other clients are facing financial hardship, even though management indicated that there was a strong pipeline, albeit with a long ramp-up period. As such, the year-end results were largely expected to be lackluster.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, April 15, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Bit Digital (BTBT)/OUTPERFORM – First Cerebras Systems Location Secured
GeoVax Labs (GOVX)/OUTPERFORM – Stop Work Order Received For Project NextGen Trial – No Impact On Other Programs
Bit Digital (BTBT/$1.85 | Price Target: $5.5)
Joe Gomes, CFA [email protected] | 561-999-2262
Jacob Mutchler [email protected] |
First Cerebras Systems Location Secured
Rating: OUTPERFORM
New Tier 3 Site. Bit Digital announced that it has secured the rights to a new data center site in Saint-Jérôme, Québec (to be known as Montreal-3). This site, which is under development, will support the previously announced 5MW colocation agreement with Cerebras Systems, a leader in generative AI infrastructure.
Details. The facility spans approximately 202,000 square feet on 7.7 acres. In addition to the current Cerebras agreement, the facility has future expansion potential, subject to utility approvals. The transaction was executed under a lease-to-own structure, which includes a fixed-price purchase option exercisable within 12 months. The lease term is 20 years, with two 5-year extension options. The facility is being retrofitted to Tier 3 standards. Bit Digital expects development costs to total approximately CAD $55 million (approximately $40MM USD), and a targeted go-live date of July 2025.
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GeoVax Labs (GOVX/$1.07 | Price Target: $10)
Robert LeBoyer [email protected] | (212) 896-4625
Stop Work Order Received For Project NextGen Trial – No Impact On Other Programs
Rating: OUTPERFORM
GeoVax Has Received A Stop Work Order For The Phase 2b Trial. GeoVax has received a Stop Work order for its BARDA-sponsored Phase 2b trial testing of CM04S1 for COVID-19. We have known about other Project NextGen-funded COVID-19 trials that were halted, but hoped the CM04S1 program would continue.
Background On The Phase 2 Trial. In June 2024, BARDA (an office within HHS) selected CM04S1 for a Phase 2b trial to test efficacy, immunogenicity, and safety for protection against COVID-19 as part of Project NexGen. We had expected GeoVax to receive about $25 million for its work on trial design and supplies to be receive
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, April 14, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
InPlay Oil (IPOOF)/OUTPERFORM – Moving Up in the League Table
InPlay Oil (IPOOF/$0.93 | Price Target: $3.75)
Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau [email protected] |
Moving Up in the League Table
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Transformative acquisition closed. InPlay Oil recently closed its acquisition of Cardium light oil focused assets in the Pembina area of Alberta from Obsidian Energy for net consideration of approximately $301 million. The transaction more than doubles InPlay’s total output to 18,750 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boe/d). The assets are 68% weighted in oil and natural gas liquids (NGLs) and have a low decline rate of 22%. Management expects greater production, a lower decline rate, and enhanced operational efficiency. Following the completion of the acquisition, InPlay had 167,636,627 shares issued and outstanding.
Share consolidation. Effective April 14, InPlay will implement a share consolidation based on one common share for six common shares. The consolidation was unanimously approved by the company’s board and by 96.56% of the votes cast during a special meeting of shareholders. Post-consolidation, InPlay will have approximately 27,939,438 common shares issued and outstanding. The shares are expected to begin trading on a post-consolidation basis two to three trading days following the effective date.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, April 11, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Saga Communications (SGA)/OUTPERFORM – Is It Time To Buy The Stock?
Saga Communications (SGA/$11.5 | Price Target: $18)
Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler [email protected] |
Is It Time To Buy The Stock?
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Attractive opportunity. The SGA stock is down 48% over the past year, which we believe is largely due to macroeconomic uncertainty impacting advertising revenue and a digital segment that is still early in its development. With some of the noise related to the late filing and activist shareholders quelled for the time being, the company is fully focused on its growth strategy. Given that radio stocks typically experience early cycle recoveries, we believe investors should have the SGA shares on their radar screens.
Cost-effective digital growth strategy. A key focus of the company is reducing costs that have no impact on revenue and continuing to emphasize the roll out of its blended digital advertising strategy. Notably, the blended strategy combines radio and digital advertising to provide a consistent message to customers on both mediums and to drive radio listeners to digital platforms. We view the company’s emphasis on the unique strategy favorably.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, April 10, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Snail (SNAL)/OUTPERFORM – Increasing Working Capital
Snail (SNAL/$0.77 | Price Target: $4)
Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler [email protected] |
Increasing Working Capital
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Completes a private placement. The Company completed a private placement offering of two unsecured convertible promissory notes for a combined total of $3.3 million. The notes were sold at a 10% discount to the principal amount and will pay a 5% Paid-In-Kind (PIK) annualized dividend. The proceeds will be used to increase working capital to support its projects and game releases in 2025.
Convertible features. The notes are convertible into shares of Class A Common Stock at $5.00 on any trading day during the five trading days prior to the conversion date. The notes mature in February 2026. Interest to be Paid-In-Kind (PIK) on the convertible notes will begin May 2025 and will be paid in 10 equal payments.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, April 9, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP)/OUTPERFORM – A Strong U.S. Economy Relies on Abundant, Affordable and Reliable Energy Sources
V2X (VVX)/OUTPERFORM – New Business; Successful ReFi
Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP/$25.87 | Price Target: $32)
Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272
A Strong U.S. Economy Relies on Abundant, Affordable and Reliable Energy Sources
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Biden-era policies disadvantaged coal-fired power plants. In May 2024, the Environmental Protection Agency published a final rule that amended the Mercury and Air Toxics Standards (MATS) rule to make it more stringent. The rule placed severe burdens on coal-fired power plants and required compliance with standards premised on the application of costly emissions-control technologies that, for many coal plants, were not commercially viable. The new carbon emission rules were expected to accelerate coal-fired power plant retirements.
Taking a pragmatic and realistic approach. On April 8, President Trump took actions through proclamation and executive order to, 1) reinvigorate the U.S. coal industry, 2) protect American energy from state overreach, 3) strengthen the reliability and security of the United States electric grid, and 4) provide two years of relief from stringent Biden-era environmental regulations by allowing certain coal plants to comply with a less stringent version of the MATS rule. Moreover, the actions are intended to reduce regulatory burdens and promote coal exports.
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V2X (VVX/$45.66 | Price Target: $72)
Joe Gomes, CFA [email protected] | 561-999-2262
New Business; Successful ReFi
Rating: OUTPERFORM
COBRA DANE. V2X has been awarded a $62 million contract extension to continue ensuring the operational readiness of the COBRA DANE radar system in Alaska. In addition to ensuring operational readiness, V2X has incorporated various engineering enhancements into this essential system, extending its capabilities and readiness. This full-spectrum support emphasizes V2X’s differentiated capabilities, in our view. The extension work is expected to be completed by March 2027.
TESS ID/IQ. V2X won a seat on the Bridge to Enduring Synthetic Training Environment Tactical Engagement Simulation Systems (TESS). This contract supports the U.S. Army’s TESS devices, a vital component of its live training capabilities, by extending their product life and ensuring they meet the Army’s evolving requirements. The ID/IQ contract includes a ten-year performance period consisting of a five-year base period and two options with a ceiling value of $921 million. This award complements V2X’s previously won $3.7 billion Warfighter Readiness task order.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, April 8, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Euroseas (ESEA)/OUTPERFORM – Favorable Time Charter Contract for the M/V Monica
GDEV (GDEV)/OUTPERFORM – A More Profitable Growth Outlook
Euroseas (ESEA/$28.13 | Price Target: $44)
Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272
Hans Baldau [email protected] |
Favorable Time Charter Contract for the M/V Monica
Rating: OUTPERFORM
New time charter contract. Euroseas Ltd. executed a time charter contract for the M/V Monica at a gross daily rate of $23,500 for a minimum period of 24 months, with an option to extend to a maximum of 26 months at the charterer’s option. The M/V Monica is a 1,800 twenty-foot equivalent unit (TEU) feeder container ship. The new charter is expected to commence between the end of April and mid-May 2025.
Attractive rate and improved charter coverage. The new time charter is an improvement over the previous contract rate of $16,000 per day and is expected to contribute EBITDA of $12.1 million during the minimum contracted period. The new time charter enhances Euroseas’ charter coverage for the remainder of 2025 and 2026 to ~94% and ~58%, respectively.
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GDEV (GDEV/$9.7 | Price Target: $70)
Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler [email protected] |
A More Profitable Growth Outlook
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid Q4 results. The company reported Q4 revenue of $97.5 million, modestly lower than our estimate of $101.0 million, but adj. EBITDA of $12.2 million was substantially better than our estimate of a loss of $1.9 million. The adj. EBITDA beat was largely driven by the company’s efficient use of selling and marketing expenses, which were 25% lower than our estimate.
Key operating metrics. In Q4, the company generated $94 million in bookings and had 292,000 monthly paying users (MPU). Bookings were largely in line with our expectations, while MPUs were modestly lower than we anticipated. Importantly, the decrease in MPU’s moderated from the quarter-over-quarter decrease experienced in Q3, and the company’s strategic marketing efforts appear to be gaining traction.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, April 7, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
E.W. Scripps (SSP)/OUTPERFORM – Plenty Of Near Term Catalysts
E.W. Scripps (SSP/$2.38 | Price Target: $10)
Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler [email protected] |
Plenty Of Near Term Catalysts
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Notes from recent investor meetings. This report highlights comments from Jason Combs, CFO, and Carolyn Micheli, VP Corp. Communications, on a Non-Deal Roadshow to California on April 2, 2025. Topics of discussion included the timing of debt refinancings, deregulation prospects, current advertising environment, Retransmission growth, and revenue prospects from the implementation of a new broadcast standard, ATCS 3.0.
Debt refi to be completed imminently. The company is expected to imminently announce the securitization of $450 million of its accounts receivable, with a portion of the proceeds to be used to pay down its 2026 term loan and extending its revolver to mid-2027. Notably, the interest rate on the refi is a modest 70 basis points above the original revolver. The company also pushed the maturities of its 2026 term loan and 2028 term loan 2 years and 1 year, respectively.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Friday, April 4, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
FreightCar America (RAIL)/OUTPERFORM – While the Tariff Overhang is Removed, RAIL Shares Remain Undervalued
Resources Connection (RGP)/OUTPERFORM – Challenges Remain, But Some Positive Signs
FreightCar America (RAIL/$5 | Price Target: $13.5)
Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272
While the Tariff Overhang is Removed, RAIL Shares Remain Undervalued
Rating: OUTPERFORM
No direct tariff impact. While the Trump administration recently announced sweeping new tariffs, goods from Mexico and Canada that comply with the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) trade agreement remain exempt from tariffs, except for automobile exports and steel and aluminum, which fall under separate tariffs. FreightCar America sources most of its raw materials, including aluminum, from the United States.
Return to business as usual. FreightCar America, along with customers in its addressable markets, have greater certainty regarding tariff policies, which could promote a return to business as usual for those that might have previously deferred orders due to uncertainty. While the Trump administration’s trade policies could have implications for U.S. and global economic growth, we believe the tariffs are negotiable. Importantly, because RAIL continues to increase its market share serving an industry that is in a replacement cycle, we do not anticipate a change in RAIL’s near-term sales trajectory despite the potential for slower economic growth.
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Resources Connection (RGP/$5.32 | Price Target: $15)
Joe Gomes, CFA [email protected] | 561-999-2262
Jacob Mutchler [email protected] |
Challenges Remain, But Some Positive Signs
Rating: OUTPERFORM
3Q25 Results. Results came in-line or better than management’s expectations. Revenue was $129.4 million, modestly short of our $132 million estimate. Gross margin of 35.1% was just above the high end of guidance and our 34.8% estimate. The bottom line was impacted by a $42 million goodwill impairment charge, resulting in an adjusted loss of $0.08/sh for the quarter.
Challenging Environment. The professional services environment remains challenging, especially in the U.S., given the economic uncertainty. However, the Company is seeing positive signs in the International business. Several key performance indicators, including bill rate increases, sizeable pipeline expansion, and the return of $1M+ project pursuits, point to a brighter future.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Thursday, April 3, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
GDEV (GDEV)/OUTPERFORM – Marketing Strategy Hits Its Stride
Government Solutions (Government Solutions) – New ICE Emergency Funding?
MariMed Inc (MRMD)/OUTPERFORM – A Cannabis Brands Company; Initiating Coverage
GDEV (GDEV/$10.87 | Price Target: $70)
Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler [email protected] |
Marketing Strategy Hits Its Stride
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid Q4 results. The company reported Q4 revenue of $97.5 million, modestly lower than our estimate of $101.0 million, but adj. EBITDA of $12.2 million was substantially better than our estimate of a loss of $1.9 million, as illustrated in Figure #1 Q4 Results. The adj. EBITDA beat was largely driven by the company’s efficient use of selling and marketing expenses, which was 25% lower than our estimate.
Key operating metrics. In Q4, the company generated $94 million in bookings and had 292,000 monthly paying users (MPU). Bookings were largely in line with our expectations, while MPUs were modestly lower than we anticipated. Importantly, the decrease in MPU’s moderated from the quarter-over-quarter decrease experienced in Q3, and the company’s strategic marketing efforts appear to be gaining traction.
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Government Solutions
Joe Gomes, CFA [email protected] | 561-999-2262
New ICE Emergency Funding?
Emergency Funding. On Tuesday, the Department of Homeland Security submitted on SAM.gov for an emergency detention and related services strategic sourcing vehicle to bring an additional allotment of detention beds online nationwide, in compliance with the President’s Declaration of a National Emergency at the Southern Border of the United States and related Executive Orders. The maximum ceiling value of the vehicle is $45 billion.
Details. Under the RFP, the government anticipates making multiple indefinite delivery/indefinite quantity (IDIQ) contract awards. It appears the contract will have a two-year period of performance, from April 14, 2025, through April 13, 2027. Responses are due by April 4th. Under the scope of work, the vendor may be required to provide infrastructure, staffing, services, and/or supplies necessary to provide safe and secure confinement for aliens in the administrative custody of ICE. Ground transportation services may also be required.
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MariMed Inc (MRMD/$0.09 | Price Target: $0.25)
Joe Gomes, CFA [email protected] | 561-999-2262
A Cannabis Brands Company; Initiating Coverage
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Initiating Research Coverage. We are initiating research coverage of MariMed, Inc. with an Outperform rating and a $0.25 price target. MariMed is a cannabis brand powerhouse, in our view, with leading market shares in current markets and significant expansion potential both within existing markets and new greenfield markets.
MSO. With operations in six states, MariMed is a vertically integrated seed-to-sale cannabis provider. Following in the footsteps of successful consumer brands companies, MariMed has three market leading brands across its operations. We expect the Company to benefit from the growth of its brands in growing markets as well as the addition of new markets in Ohio, Illinois, and Delaware in 2025.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Wednesday, April 2, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Xcel Brands (XELB)/OUTPERFORM – Focused On Licensing Development
Xcel Brands (XELB/$3.05 | Price Target: $17.5)
Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler [email protected] |
Focused On Licensing Development
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Industry dynamics. The QVC Group recently announced that it is laying off 900 employees as part of its effort to become a live social shopping company. Notably, while we don’t anticipate QVC will stop live selling on traditional TV, the increased focus on social commerce is illustrative of changing consumer viewing habits. In our view, XCEL Brands is well positioned to benefit from shift in viewing habits toward streaming alternatives.
Valuable expertise. XCEL Brands is a veteran in the live selling space and has extensive experience working with celebrities to help bring their products to market and help them sell. In our view, the company is well positioned to provide celebrities with expertise both in traditional TV and social commerce selling, or live streaming.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Tuesday, April 1, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Aurania Resources (AUIAF)/OUTPERFORM – Making Progress on Multiple Fronts
Cocrystal Pharma (COCP)/OUTPERFORM – FY2024 Reported With Clinical Trials On Schedule
Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY)/OUTPERFORM – FY2024 Reported As The Countdown To OLC PDUDFA Date Begins
Aurania Resources (AUIAF/$0.24 | Price Target: $0.55)
Mark Reichman [email protected] | (561) 999-2272
Making Progress on Multiple Fronts
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Concession renewal in Ecuador. In March, Aurania filed the appropriate documentation for the 2025 renewal of its 42 mineral exploration concessions in southeastern Ecuador, along with a request to enter into an agreement for payment of the annual concession fees. The request was accepted, and the company is working with various governmental departments to negotiate an agreement. Aurania considers that by filing the concession renewals prior to the March 31 deadline, it maintains its property in Ecuador in good standing while a payment agreement is being finalized.
Kuri-Yawi IP geophysical survey. An induced polarization survey was completed at the Kuri-Yawi epithermal gold target in late 2024. The survey confirmed the presence of a conductive area, which could be an epithermal conduit that Aurania has been targeting. Aurania’s geologists are currently studying and comparing data compiled to date from the IP survey, an airborne magnetic survey, field work, previous drilling data, and a MobileMT survey to define the best possible drill hole locations for a future drilling program.
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Cocrystal Pharma (COCP/$1.42 | Price Target: $10)
Robert LeBoyer [email protected] | (212) 896-4625
FY2024 Reported With Clinical Trials On Schedule
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Fourth Quarter and FY2024 Reported. Cocrystal reported a 4Q24 loss of $3.1 million or $(0.31) per share and a FY2024 loss of $17.5 million or $(1.72) per share. The company reviewed the progress it has made in 4Q24 and YTD with CC-988 for norovirus/coronavirus and with CPI-42344 for influenza. The cash balance on December 31, 2024, was $9.9 million.
Human Challenge Study Planned For CC-988 In Norovirus. Cocrystal is planning a human challenge study to test CC-988, its protease inhibitor for norovirus and coronaviruses. The new trial follows the results of the Phase 1 ascending dose studies announced in December 2024, showing safety and tolerability. Results from an additional high-dose cohort are expected in 2Q25. The Phase 2a human challenge study is expected to begin later in 2025.
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Unicycive Therapeutics (UNCY/$0.57 | Price Target: $7)
Robert LeBoyer [email protected] | (212) 896-4625
FY2024 Reported As The Countdown To OLC PDUDFA Date Begins
Rating: OUTPERFORM
FY2025 Made Significant Progress. Unicycive reported a 4Q loss of $21.7 million or $(0.20) per share and a loss of $37.8 million or $(0.56) per share for FY2024. Cash on December 31, 2024 was $26.1 million. The most significant development, in our opinion, is the June 28, 2025, PFUFA date by which the FDA is required to answer to the Oxylanthanum (OLC) NDA.
OLC Launch is expected in Late 2025. The PDUFA date of June 28, 2025, is the statutory date by which the FDA is required to answer the NDA application. We expect OLC to be approved, based on its clinical trial data showing equivalence to lanthanum (Fosrenol, from Shire) with easier dosing, better patient compliance, and more patients reaching the target range for phosphate levels. An estimated 70% of the renal dialysis patients do not have adequate phosphate control. We believe its lower pill burden and improved patient compliance will lead to better outcomes with fewer morbidity events, leading to a strong market share.
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Noble Capital Markets Research Report Monday, March 31, 2025
Companies contained in today’s report:
Snail (SNAL)/OUTPERFORM – 2025 To Headline Diversification Efforts
Snail (SNAL/$1.04 | Price Target: $4)
Michael Kupinski [email protected] | (561) 994-5734
Jacob Mutchler [email protected] |
2025 To Headline Diversification Efforts
Rating: OUTPERFORM
Solid Q4 results. The company reported Q4 revenue and adj. EBITDA of $26.2 million and $1.6 million, respectively. While revenue was modestly better than our estimate of $25.0 million, adj. EBITDA was a tad softer. Notably, the variance in adj. EBITDA was driven by an increased focus on in-house development, resulting in higher R&D costs. We view the company’s efforts to diversify its revenue stream as a favorable development.
Portfolio expansion. The company has been taking steps to offer more games and products that could drive revenue diversification. Notably, the company launched ARK: Ultimate Mobile Edition in December and gained over 2 million users during the month. Additionally, the company soft launched a new mobile app, SaltyTV, which offers original short film content. Furthermore, the company acquired eleven games in 2024, with several releases expected in 2025.
