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Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) – Increasing Longer-Term Oil and Gas Royalty Volume Expectations; Price Target Increased

Natural Resources
0 min read


Wednesday, November 27, 2024

ARLP is a diversified natural resource company that generates operating and royalty income from coal produced by its mining complexes and royalty income from mineral interests it owns in strategic oil & gas producing regions in the United States, primarily the Permian, Anadarko and Williston basins. ARLP currently produces coal from seven mining complexes its subsidiaries operate in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia. ARLP also operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mount Vernon, Indiana. ARLP markets its coal production to major domestic and international utilities and industrial users and is currently the second largest coal producer in the eastern United States. In addition, ARLP is positioning itself as an energy provider for the future by leveraging its core technology and operating competencies to make strategic investments in the fast growing energy and infrastructure transition.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Adjusting estimates. While our 2024 and 2025 estimates are unchanged, we have increased our 2026 through 2030 EBITDA and EPU estimates to reflect higher year-over-year growth in oil and gas royalty volumes of 12.5% compared to our previous estimate of 2.0% which we think is too conservative based on the partnership’s record. Our commodity price deck is unchanged. We have assumed an average of $75 million per year in oil and gas reserve acquisitions in 2026 through 2030. Based on our higher forward estimates and a modest 100-basis point reduction in our discount rate to 9.5%, we have increased our price target to $33 per share from $28.

Hail to the incoming chief. We expect industries associated with the fossil fuels to benefit from the upcoming change in U.S. Presidential administrations. It is our belief that the Trump Administration may seek to roll back the EPA’s carbon emissions rule which could extend the life of existing coal-fired power plants. Moreover, we think the business climate could improve based on a move toward market-based energy policies and a reduction in regulatory burden.


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This Company Sponsored Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 

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