Escalating hostilities between Israel and Iran have injected a new wave of supply disruption fears into global oil markets, sending crude prices surging to multi-month highs. The flareup threatens to further tighten supplies at a time when producers already appear maxed out, setting the stage for another potential energy price shock.
Crude benchmarks spiked over $90 a barrel in overnight trading after Israeli missiles struck Iran overnight. The attack came in retaliation for an Iranian drone and missile barrage targeting Israel just days earlier. While Iran has downplayed the impact so far, the tit-for-tat actions raised the specter of a broader military conflict that could imperil energy shipments throughout the Middle East.
Front-month Brent futures, the global pricing benchmark, jumped as high as $92 per barrel before paring gains. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude topped $89 per barrel. Though off their overnight peaks, both contracts remained up over 2% on the day, hitting levels not seen since late 2023.
The aerial attacks have put the market on edge over the potential for supply chokeholds out of the Persian Gulf. Any protracted disruptions in that key oil shipping chokepoint would severely crimp available exports to global markets from regional producers like Saudi Arabia, Iran, and Iraq.
With the oil market already grappling with reduced supply from Russia due to sanctions, as well as chronic underinvestment by drillers, even modest additional shortfalls could quickly drain limited spare capacity buffers. OPEC and its allies have struggled to boost output to offset losses amid the broader underinvestment cycle.
For consumers still reeling from high energy costs, another bullish jolt to oil prices is an unwelcome development. After pulling back from 2022’s dizzying peaks, U.S. gasoline prices have started rebounding in recent weeks. The current $3.67 per gallon national average is up 21 cents just over the past month, according to AAA.
Some of that increase was expected due to seasonal refinery maintenance impacts. But the renewed geopolitical turmoil could propel gasoline and other fuel prices significantly higher nationwide if the conflict engulfing Israel and Iran deteriorates further.
The energy spike compounds existing inflationary headwinds plaguing the global economy. From restricted supplies of grains and fertilizers to manufacturing disruptions, the shockwaves from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continue to ripple far and wide over a year later. Rapidly escalating tensions in the Middle East risk aggravating those pressures at a time when central banks are still struggling to restore price stability.
While some of the risk premium prompted by the Israel-Iran conflict may already be priced into crude, the threat of escalating retaliatory actions between the two adversaries keeps bullish risks elevated. Additional supply hits to global markets from further hostilities could easily drive oil prices back towards triple-digit territory not seen since 2022.
On Wall Street, stock futures were initially rattled by the rising geopolitical tensions, though markets stabilized in early trading as Iran refrained from immediate retaliation. Still, the volatility injected reinforces the nebulous risks confronting investors from the ever-simmering Middle East powder keg.
With so much at stake for inflation outlooks, policymakers at the Federal Reserve and other central banks will be monitoring the region with hawkish vigilance. Though diplomatically challenging to resolve, an extended sectarian conflict jeopardizing the secure flow of oil could compel another crusade of aggressive interest rate hikes historically anathema to financial markets.
For both consumers and investors, the situation serves as a stark reminder that geopolitical shocks exposing vulnerabilities in tight energy markets remain an omnipresent threat overhanging the economic outlook. Whether this clash proves fleeting or portends protracted hostilities remains to be seen, but the reverberations have oil prices surging once again.
