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Long Story Short: Large and Small Caps Return Probabilities

Markets
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Long Term Investors and Small Cap Stocks

(Note: companies that
could be impacted by the content of this article are listed at the base of the
story [desktop version]. This article uses third-party references to provide a
bullish, bearish, and balanced point of view; sources are listed after the
Balanced section.)

According to Ibbotson Associates’ Stocks, Bonds, Bill and Inflation, small Capitalization stocks outperform Large Capitalization stocks over the long term. (Although there is not a set definition for a Small Cap stock,  generally speaking Small Cap stocks are those with a market capitalization below $2 billion today, while Large Cap stocks refer to the S&P 500.) Over the 1926-2018 period, Small Caps produced an average annual return of 11.0% compared to 9.99% for Large Capitalization stocks. (1) But, since 2010, Small Cap stocks have underperformed their Large Cap brethren. From the beginning of 2010 through the end of 2019 the S&P 500 rose 185.2% while the Russell 2000 (a proxy for small cap stocks) was up 145.8%. Over the last decade, the S&P 500 outperformed the Russell 2000 in 6 of the ten years. In 2019, the S&P 500 produced a 28.9% return compared to 23.7% for the Russell 2000. Has the time come for Small Cap stocks to outperform Large Cap stocks?

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