Friday, January 23, 2026
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Updated Estimates. We tweaked our fourth quarter 2025 estimates after speaking with management. The changes do not impact our belief in the investment case for Commercial Vehicle Group. We maintained our revenue estimate at $146 million. Gross margin has been lowered to 10.3% from 11% previously. We are now estimating an adjusted net loss of $5 million, or $0.15 per share. Adjusted EBITDA is now $2.8 million. For the full year, we are at revenue of $640.2 million and adjusted EBITDA of $18.3 million.
Green Shoots? Recent data from FTR and ACT could indicate an improved Class 8 truck environment in 2026, although we would need to see multiple months of positive developments before jumping in with both feet. According to FTR, December Class 8 truck orders of 42,200 units were the highest level since October 2022. Meanwhile, ACT raised its expectation for Class 8 production in 2026 to 246,000 units, up from a prior 205,000, and nearly flat with 2025.
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