EuroDry (EDRY) – Sensitivity to shipping rates is hurting results & could get worse

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Tuesday, February 14, 2023

EuroDry Ltd. was formed on January 8, 2018 under the laws of the Republic of the Marshall Islands to consolidate the drybulk fleet of Euroseas Ltd. into a separate listed public company. EuroDry was spun-off from Euroseas Ltd. on May 30, 2018; it trades on the NASDAQ Capital Market under the ticker EDRY. EuroDry operates in the dry cargo, drybulk shipping market. EuroDry’s operations are managed by Eurobulk Ltd., an ISO 9001:2008 and ISO 14001:2004 certified affiliated ship management company and Eurobulk (Far East) Ltd. Inc., which are responsible for the day- to-day commercial and technical management and operations of the vessels. EuroDry employs its vessels on spot and period charters and under pool agreements.

Michael Heim, CFA, Senior Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Lower shipping rates hurting results. Eurodry reported 2022-4Q revenues, net, of $15.1 million versus $22.3 million and below our projection of $19.9 million. Average TCE rates for the quarter were $16,689 versus $29,157 and our $18,982 estimate. Lower shipping rates led to a a 54% decline in adj. ebitda and a 78% decrease in adjusted net income. The sharp declines demonstrate Eurodry’s extreme sensitivity to shipping rates.

Shipping rate sensitivity will only increase in upcoming months. Fleet rate coverage drops off dramatically after the 2023-1Q. In fact, all 11 ships will be exposed to spot or indexed prices. This, combined with a further drop in shipping rates in February, could result in a difficult upcoming quarter for the company. Management estimates it would need rates above $12,700 to be cash flow breakeven while noting current prices in the $6,000-$7,000 range.

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*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 


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