Gray Television (GTN) – Learns A Hard Lesson On Forecasting Political

Media and Entertainment
0 min read

Monday, November 07, 2022

Gray Television is a multimedia company headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia. We are the nation’s largest owner of top-rated local television stations and digital assets in the United States. Our television stations serve 113 television markets that collectively reach approximately 36 percent of US television households. This portfolio includes 80 markets with the top-rated television station and 100 markets with the first and/or second highest rated television station. We also own video program companies Raycom Sports, Tupelo Honey, PowerNation Studios and Third Rail Studios.

Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Patrick McCann, Research Associate, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Q3 below expectations. The company reported Q3 revenue of $909 million, 4% below our estimate of $948 million. The revenue variance was due to lower than expected Political advertising. Adj. EBITDA of $336 million was 11% below our estimate of $377 million, surprisingly good given the absence of $50 million in high margin revenue.

Political below forecast. The quarterly miss was due primarily to lower-than-expected Political revenue, $144 million compared with our estimate of $194 million. Political advertising shifted toward some of the tight races in larger markets. Nonetheless, for the first nine months of the year, Political revenue was just 3.5% below the cyclical high Presidential election of 2020, on a combined historic basis. 

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This Research is provided by Noble Capital Markets, Inc., a FINRA and S.E.C. registered broker-dealer (B/D).

*Analyst certification and important disclosures included in the full report. NOTE: investment decisions should not be based upon the content of this research summary. Proper due diligence is required before making any investment decision. 


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