Thursday, January 29, 2026
Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Hans Baldau, Associate Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Outlook for 2026. Hemisphere Energy released 2026 guidance outlining a C$12.0 million capital program, expected to support ~6.3% growth in average annual production to approximately 3,900 boe/d, compared to our estimated 2025 average of 3,670 boe/d. The capital program is expected to be fully funded from adjusted funds flow and is designed to provide disciplined year-over-year growth while protecting the balance sheet and maintaining shareholder returns. Production is expected to remain 99% heavy oil, supported primarily by polymer flood enhanced oil recovery at Atlee Buffalo.
Updating estimates. We are trimming our 2026 revenue estimate to C$89.9 million from C$93.7 million due to lower production and commodity price estimates. Our production and WTI crude oil price estimates are now 3,900 boe/d and US$60 compared to our previous estimates of 4,080 boe/d and US$65. Despite the lower revenue outlook, adjusted funds flow (AFF) increased modestly to C$40.0 million from C$39.7 million, reflecting lower assumed operating costs, improved differentials, and a reduced royalty burden. AFF per share remains unchanged at C$0.40.
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