Michael Burry, the famed investor known for predicting the 2008 housing market crash, is once again at the center of attention — this time for a surprisingly bullish stance on Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. In a lengthy blog post published Monday, Burry revealed he holds sizable positions in both government-sponsored enterprises and believes their long-awaited return to public markets may be close. The disclosure has fueled excitement among investors who have followed the Fannie and Freddie saga for more than a decade.
According to Burry, a relisting of the mortgage-finance giants is “nearly upon us.” His detailed post explored the political, regulatory, and financial steps that must occur before the companies can be fully released from government control. Both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were placed into conservatorship during the 2008 crisis, and since then, multiple administrations have debated how to reform or privatize them. Burry argues that conditions are finally shifting toward a path back to Wall Street.
Michael Burry’s renewed interest in the housing-finance sector is significant given his historical role in identifying weaknesses in the mortgage market before the financial collapse. He reminded readers of this history by including excerpts from an older note in which he criticized the agencies and described his earlier investments in credit-default swaps tied to their debt. This time, however, Burry says he did not become bullish on their common stock until after Donald Trump’s presidential win last year, which he believes increased the likelihood of policy changes that benefit shareholders.
In the post, Burry stated that he owns both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac common stock “in good size,” and suggested that the offering price in any IPO will play a major role in determining their true intrinsic value. He highlighted three major changes regulators would need to make before a public offering could occur: easing capital requirements, converting certain preferred shares into common stock, and reducing the government’s senior claims on future profits. Without addressing the last issue, Burry warned that common shares could be “worthless.”
Despite the optimism, he also cautioned that the path to an IPO remains “steep, windy, and rocky,” noting that the political process could still slow progress. Shares of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac reacted positively to his commentary, rising more than 3% on Tuesday and gaining over 15% so far this month. The stocks, which trade over-the-counter, remain highly volatile as investors digest shifting expectations.
Burry’s views arrive shortly after longtime shareholder Bill Ackman proposed a plan on social media to relist the companies on the New York Stock Exchange. Meanwhile, analysts such as Bose George at Keefe Bruyette & Woods remain cautious, arguing that common shareholders still face significant downside risks if reforms stall or if the government opts to convert preferred shares in a way that dilutes existing holders.
Whether Michael Burry’s thesis proves correct remains to be seen, but his involvement has injected new momentum into one of the most closely watched restructuring stories in U.S. finance.
