Nvidia is preparing to release its second quarter earnings report, marking the final results of Big Tech’s earnings season. The announcement carries high stakes as the chipmaker navigates new challenges tied to U.S. policy shifts and strained relations with China.
The company previously warned investors that it expects an $8 billion hit to its bottom line for the quarter, primarily due to restrictions on chip sales to China. In April, former President Donald Trump imposed a ban on shipments of Nvidia’s advanced chips into China, citing national security concerns. While the ban was lifted in July, a new requirement mandates that Nvidia pay the U.S. government a 15% fee on sales to the Chinese market. This move has significantly impacted Nvidia’s projected revenue.
Adding further pressure, Trump announced plans to impose a 100% tariff on semiconductor shipments entering the United States unless companies commit to expanding domestic manufacturing. Nvidia, however, is expected to be exempt from this tariff given its existing U.S. operations and ongoing investments.
Despite these hurdles, Nvidia’s stock has continued to perform strongly throughout the year. Shares were up 35% year to date and more than 40% over the past 12 months leading into Wednesday’s report. In July, the company became the first in history to reach a $4 trillion market capitalization, a milestone that underscores its dominance in the artificial intelligence sector.
For the second quarter, Wall Street analysts expect Nvidia to post adjusted earnings per share of $1.01 on revenue of $46.2 billion, according to Bloomberg estimates. This compares with $0.68 in EPS and $30 billion in revenue during the same quarter last year, representing year-over-year growth of nearly 50%. While this growth rate is lower than the triple-digit surges Nvidia reported last year during the height of the AI boom, analysts believe the slowdown could be temporary.
Evercore ISI analyst Mark Lipacis suggested that a leveling out around 50% growth may attract new momentum investors and lead to further valuation expansion. Meanwhile, Nvidia’s data center business, the backbone of its AI strategy, is projected to generate $41.2 billion in sales this quarter, up sharply from $26.2 billion a year ago. Gaming, its second largest division, is expected to contribute $3.8 billion.
Investors will be listening closely to management’s commentary on shipments of Nvidia’s GB200 super chip, the rollout of its Blackwell Ultra processors, and the company’s position in China. Some analysts caution that third quarter guidance could come in below expectations if Nvidia excludes direct revenue from China sales.
At the same time, Nvidia faces political headwinds abroad. The Chinese government has warned local companies to avoid using Nvidia’s products, citing alleged security risks, a claim the company denies. Nvidia has signaled its willingness to cooperate with regulators and is reportedly preparing a new chip design tailored for the Chinese market, though it will need U.S. government approval before any shipments can begin.
As Nvidia heads into its earnings release, the company sits at the center of the global debate over technology, trade, and national security. The results will not only reflect Nvidia’s financial strength but also provide clues about how it intends to balance growth with the mounting pressures of geopolitics.
