Monday, June 09, 2025
The GEO Group, Inc. (NYSE: GEO) is a leading diversified government service provider, specializing in design, financing, development, and support services for secure facilities, processing centers, and community reentry centers in the United States, Australia, South Africa, and the United Kingdom. GEO’s diversified services include enhanced in-custody rehabilitation and post-release support through the award-winning GEO Continuum of Care®, secure transportation, electronic monitoring, community-based programs, and correctional health and mental health care. GEO’s worldwide operations include the ownership and/or delivery of support services for 103 facilities totaling approximately 83,000 beds, including idle facilities and projects under development, with a workforce of up to approximately 18,000 employees.
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Lawton Sale. The GEO Group announced it has entered into a purchase agreement to sell its Company-owned Lawton, OK, facility to the Oklahoma Department of Corrections for $312 million. This is one of two facilities GEO management had indicated were up for sale. The sale is expected to close by the end of July 2025.
Value Affirming. The Lawton sale re-affirms our belief in the value of GEO’s real estate assets, a value that significantly exceeds the current stock price. Based on the reported 2,682 beds, the purchase price is equivalent to $116,000/bd. With some 43,000 owned beds in the Safety segment alone, the potential value of the segment real estate would be $5 billion. We do not expect the sale to have a significant impact on reported EBITDA.
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