The Week Ahead – No Inflation Report, But Jobs Could Disrupt

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Will the Markets Regain Traction this Week?

The markets are mostly up on the year, with stocks around 5.5% higher, bonds and the $ U.S. dollar near 1%, and bitcoin near 46.5% above the December 31st level. Last week there was concern that the positive start most asset classes had at the beginning of the year is going to give a sizeable portion back, perhaps all and then some. This concern was heightened by a measure that shows that inflation’s decline may be tacking higher. There are no inflation reports scheduled in the upcoming week to worry about, and few Fed President addresses to be concerned with.

Monday 2/27

  • 8:30 AM ET, Durable Goods Orders are expected to have dropped off by 4% in January. They had surged in December primarily because of aircraft orders. When transportation is removed to reveal the core Durable Goods reading, it is expected to be flat with no change from the prior month’s volume of orders.
  • 10:00 AM ET, The National Association of Realtors is expected to report that Pending Home Sales rose 1% in January from the prior month. This level increase would be at a slower pace than the 2.5% increase in the prior period.
  • 10:30 AM ET, The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey is expected to have declined for the ninth consecutive month. The consensus among economists is down 9.0 versus down 8.4.

Tuesday 2/28

  • 8:30 AM ET, International Trade in Goods is expected to widen as economists expect exports to have fallen off. The expectation of a $91 billion trade deficit for the U.S. in January is $1.3 billion wider than December’s measurements.
  • 9:45 PM ET, The Institute for Supply Management uses a survey to create a composite of business conditions in the Chicago area. The leading indicator is expected to come in at 45 for February, which would be an uptick from January’s 44.3.
  • 10:00 AM ET, Consumer Confidence has been falling; the report released on Tuesday is expected to show a rise of 1.3 points to 108.4.
  • 1:00 PM ET, Money Supply (M1 and M2) are measures of liquidity, it includes household savings, savings and checking deposits, and money market mutual funds. Over the past few years, money supply measures weren’t getting much attention. As households are dealing with rising prices, it may be interesting for investors to see if amounts immediately available to households are declining at a pace that may begin to hamper spending and economic growth.

Wednesday 3/01

  • 10:00 PM ET, The ISM Manufacturing Index surveys business nationally to get the pulse on expected business levels. The forward-looking indicator is expected to have improved to 47.9 versus 47.4 the prior month.

Thursday 3/02

  • 8:30 AM ET, Jobless Claims have been a nail-biter number recently, often well off of expectations. For the week ending February 25th, claims are supposed to show an increase in claims to 200,000.

Friday 3/03

  • 10:00 AM ET, ISM Services Index had a strong January at 55.2, it is expected to trail off some and have a February reading of 54.5.
  • 12:00 PM, Atlanta Federal Reserve President Raphael Bostic has been rattling markets with his ongoing and perhaps heightened hawkish rhetoric. FOMC member Bostic is not a voting member, but his words have the power to move markets.
  • 4:15 PM, Thomas Barkin is the Richmond Federal Reserve President. He is scheduled to speak after the market closes. If the Fed is looking to adjust expectations before its late March meeting, FOMC member Barkin may be one that carries that message.

What Else

Earnings reports will continue with some of the most watched being Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and Zoom (Z.M.) on Monday. Retailer Target (TGT) reports on Tuesday, Salesforce (CRM), and NIO (NIO) on Wednesday , and Anheiser Busch (BUD) on Thursday.

The U.S. Supreme Court will begin hearing two cases on student loan debt forgiveness beginning on Tuesday. Expect some non-market-moving discourse on this subject during the week.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek


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