The Week Ahead – Powell’s Address on Inflation & Economy, PCE, Beige Book

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Will the Fed Indicate an Altered Course This Week?

Economic numbers may take a back seat to Fed Chair Powell’s address on Wednesday and other regional Fed President addresses throughout the week.

The PCE, which is an inflation adjuster to GDP, is reported on the same day as the Fed Chair’s midweek address, the potential for volatility is high.  

Monday 11/28

  • 10:30 ET, Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey, is expected to show general activity down 20.5 vs. down 19.4 the prior month. This would be the seventh straight reduction in manufacturing.
  • 12:00 ET, John Williams, the President of the New York Federal Reserve Bank, will be speaking. Although the NY Fed President has only one vote on the Federal Open Market Committee deciding monetary policy, the NY Fed tends to have more sway as the NY Fed President assumes the role of second after Chair Powell in the level of power.

Tuesday 11/29

  • 9:00 AM ET, The FHFA House Price Index is expected to have fallen 1.2 percent in September after falling 0.7 percent in August and 0.6 percent in July. August marked the sharpest fall and first back-to-back fall in 11 years.
  • 10:00 AM ET, Consumer Confidence for November 2022 is expected to come in at 100 vs 102.5 in October. The report measures consumers’ assessments of the labor market, business activity, and consumers’ own financial conditions. This could be one of the more important numbers of the week as consumer expectations and behavior can lead stock market movements and play into overall expectations as consumer spending is two-thirds of the U.S. economy.

Wednesday 11/30

  • 8:30 AM ET, GDP this will be the second estimate of the third-quarter GDP. The consensus is 2.7 percent growth. The previous estimate for the same period came in at 2.6%. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), which is considered the Fed’s favored measure of inflation, is expected to show a rise of 1.5% for the month vs. the previous 1.4% monthly increase. The PCE component of GDP may get more attention than the GDP itself since it is considered a measure of inflation.
  • 8:30 AM ET, The U.S. Goods Deficit is expected to narrow by $1.3 billion to $90.6 billion in October after narrowing by more than $6 billion in September to $91.9 billion. Changes in the levels of imports and exports, along with netting the two (trade balance), are gauges of economic trends here and abroad. These trade figures can directly impact all financial markets; however, they do this in how they impact the valuation of the dollar.
  • 8:30 Wholesale Inventories are expected to be revised downward to 0.5%. This follows a build-up in inventories in September. A decline could suggest supply-chain difficulties are increasing.
  • 10:00 AM ET, JOLTS consensus is for job openings to fall 10.4 million vs. 10.7 million in September. This number will be focused on as the September number was at a level that caused some to question whether the economy still has job shortages.
  • 1:30 PM ET, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will speak on the subjects of inflation and economic outlook; this could very well be the most market-altering event of the week. Watch it live by clicking here.
  • 2:00 PM ET, Beige Book released. A look at how each of the 12 Federal Reserve districts are reporting economic activity in their regions is important in this is a source of information the FOMC uses to make their decisions.
  • 3:00 PM ET, Farm Prices month-over-month is expected to have declined by 0.2%. Year-over-year the inflation contributor is expected to have risen 21%.

Thursday 12/1

  • 8:30 AM ET, Jobless Claims for the November 27 week are expected to come in at 235,000 versus 240,000 in the prior week. Employment is one of the Fed’s mandates; as such, any number that significantly varies from consensus could alter the markets thinking.
  • 9:25 AM ET, Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan is scheduled to give an address.
  • 10:00 AM ET, ISM Manufacturing Index was 50.2 in October; the ISM Manufacturing Index has been gradually slowing to nearly breakeven. November’s consensus is 49.9.
  • 10:00 AM ET, Construction spending is expected to fall 0.2 percent in October. This would be dramatic relative to September’s modest 0.2 percent gain.

Friday 12/2

  • 8:30 AM ET, The Employment Situation or Non-Farm Payroll is expected to rise by 200,000, which would compare with 261,000 as reported in October. October was the sixth straight month and eight of the last nine that payroll growth exceeded consensus. Average hourly earnings in November are expected to rise 0.3 percent on the month for a year-over-year rate of 4.6; these would compare with 0.4 and 4.7 percent in October.

What Else

There are more rumblings about the Fed easing up on how rapidly it is braking to tame an inflationary economy. The Powell’s words and promises on Wednesday, taken alongside of the other Fed President addresses may confirm a turning point – a tapering of the tightening.

Paul Hoffman

Managing Editor, Channelchek



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