Monday, December 01, 2025
Joe Gomes, CFA, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Generalist , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Debt Acceleration. In separate 8-K filings, parent company FAT Brands and Twin Hospitality disclosed on November 17, 2025, the firms received notices of acceleration from UMB with respect to Securitization Notes issued by four of the Securitization Issuers, with Twin Hospitality I, LLC specific to the Company. The Acceleration Notice basically states that all amounts outstanding under the Notes are immediately due and payable. Neither FAT Brands nor Twin Hospitality has the capital to repay the Twin Note.
Balance Sheet. We view the issue to be capital structure related, not operating performance. Twin is showing improvement in operating metrics, especially when factoring in the negative impact of closing Smokey Bones locations for conversion. In 3Q25, the Company expanded Twin Peaks’ profit margins by 72 basis points to 17%. While comparable sales declined, Twin was able to maintain steady system-wide weekly sales averaging $11.3 million over the past 12 weeks.
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