Alliance Resource Partners (ARLP) – Refining Estimates; Outlook Remains Favorable

Natural Resources
0 min read

Wednesday, November 15, 2023

ARLP is a diversified natural resource company that generates operating and royalty income from coal produced by its mining complexes and royalty income from mineral interests it owns in strategic oil & gas producing regions in the United States, primarily the Permian, Anadarko and Williston basins. ARLP currently produces coal from seven mining complexes its subsidiaries operate in Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland and West Virginia. ARLP also operates a coal loading terminal on the Ohio River at Mount Vernon, Indiana. ARLP markets its coal production to major domestic and international utilities and industrial users and is currently the second largest coal producer in the eastern United States. In addition, ARLP is positioning itself as an energy provider for the future by leveraging its core technology and operating competencies to make strategic investments in the fast growing energy and infrastructure transition.

Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.

Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.

Refining estimates. We have increased our 2023 EBITDA and EPU estimates to $4.96 and $975.2 million from $966.2 million and $4.89. We decided to increase our total coal sales estimates which are now at the midpoint of guidance instead of at the low end. We also modestly increased our coal sales price per ton estimate to $65.15 from $65.00 but still within the guidance range of $64.50 to $66.00. We have lowered our 2024 EBITDA and EPU estimates to $998.1 million and $5.05 from $1.0 billion and $5.15 based on modestly lower commodity prices.

Why the revisions? Alliance has committed and priced 35.0 million tons in 2023, including 29.7 million tons in the domestic market and 5.3 million tonnes in export markets. While a portion of higher priced export volumes could be deferred into 2024, we think our previous estimate was too conservative. As part of our review, we also adjusted quarterly and full year 2024 estimates and refined both years’ estimates associated with equity method investments.

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