Thursday, July 24, 2025
Mark Reichman, Managing Director, Equity Research Analyst, Natural Resources, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Increasing longer-term rail car delivery estimates. While we have maintained our rail car delivery estimates for 2025 through 2027, we have increased our delivery estimates for 2028 through 2030. We now forecast rail car deliveries of 5,500, 5,750, and 6,000, respectively, compared with our prior estimates of 5,000, 5,000, and 5,000. While we had previously assumed that RAIL would operate four production lines with an aggregate capacity of 5,000 rail cars through 2030, we now assume the company will operate five production lines with a total capacity of 6,250 rail cars beginning in 2028. Our prior assumption had been that the company could begin producing a new line of higher-margin tank cars using existing capacity at the expense of lower margin products. Because we think tank cars could add an incremental 500 or more orders beginning in 2028, the tank cars would be incremental to existing orders with five production lines.
Updating earnings estimates. We forecast 2025 EBITDA and EPS of $45.9 million and $0.47, respectively, while our 2026 estimates are $48.6 million and $0.53. While our 2025 and 2026 EBITDA estimates are unchanged, we have increased our forward estimates, which may be found in the financial model at the end of this report. While our earnings estimates have increased, gross margin as a percentage of sales remains unchanged at 13.0%, 13.3%, 13.5%, and 13.8% in 2027, 2028, 2029, and 2030, respectively, while selling, general, and administrative expense as a percentage of sales increased modestly.
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