Friday, March 15, 2024
Patrick McCann, CFA, Research Analyst, Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Michael Kupinski, Director of Research, Equity Research Analyst, Digital, Media & Technology , Noble Capital Markets, Inc.
Refer to the full report for the price target, fundamental analysis, and rating.
Q4 results below expectations. The company reported Q4 revenue of $276.7 million, 23.6% below our forecast of $362.0 million. Adj. EBITDA in the quarter was $57.0 million, below our forecast of $116.1 million. The weaker than expected results were due in large part to low Medicare Advantage plan turnover, which limited the total revenue from new policy sales in the quarter.
Low plan turnover. Management noted that the average incremental benefits added to Medicare Advantage plans in 2023 was lower than usual, which resulted in less plan switching by Medicare Advantage enrollees. Of the more than 300,000 consumers it served, GoHealth’s PlanFit Checkup recommended that roughly 1/3 of them stay with their existing plans.
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