| Key Points: – Mortgage rates fell to 6.77%, the lowest since May, as Treasury yields dipped. – High rates and home prices continue to constrain homebuyer activity. – Forecasters expect only modest rate relief through the end of the year. |
Mortgage rates have inched lower for a fourth straight week, offering a glimmer of relief for homebuyers, but not enough to spark a major rebound in the housing market. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate dropped to 6.77% this week, its lowest level since May, down slightly from 6.81% last week, according to data from Freddie Mac. The average rate for a 15-year mortgage also dipped to 5.89% from 5.96%.
This modest decline comes as geopolitical tensions ease and Treasury yields soften. A recent ceasefire between Iran and Israel helped calm global markets, while dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials increased expectations that rate cuts could come as early as July. These factors contributed to a dip in the 10-year Treasury yield, which mortgage rates tend to closely follow.
Though the Federal Reserve has not moved to lower interest rates yet, speculation around future cuts is already influencing mortgage rate behavior. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated during recent congressional testimony that while rate cuts are not imminent, the central bank remains open to adjusting policy if inflation continues to cool or if economic conditions shift.
Despite the recent rate movement, mortgage rates are still hovering near the upper end of a narrow range. Since mid-April, rates have fluctuated within a tight 15-basis-point band, limiting their ability to meaningfully impact housing affordability.
High borrowing costs, coupled with persistently high home prices, have continued to dampen housing activity. While pending home sales rose by 1.8% in May from the previous month, and 1.1% year-over-year, the overall housing market remains subdued. New home sales, in contrast, fell sharply last month, plunging 14% — the steepest monthly drop in three years, highlighting buyer hesitation in the current rate environment.
Mortgage applications for new purchases were essentially flat last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, while refinancing activity saw a modest 3% increase. The latter suggests that some homeowners are finding incentive in even small rate drops to restructure their existing loans, though the overall refinancing market remains a fraction of what it was during the ultra-low rate environment of the pandemic.
Looking ahead, economists expect only gradual improvement. The Mortgage Bankers Association projects rates to close out the year around 6.7%, while Fannie Mae anticipates a slightly more optimistic 6.5%. Either way, most forecasts suggest a slow decline rather than a swift return to significantly lower levels.
For prospective buyers, this means affordability may improve modestly, but major relief remains unlikely in the short term. With inflation, Federal Reserve policy, and global uncertainty still in play, the mortgage market is expected to remain cautious.
