U.S. inflation showed further signs of cooling in December, offering fresh evidence that price pressures across the economy are continuing to moderate as the year comes to a close. According to the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released Tuesday by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, core consumer prices rose at their slowest annual pace since March 2021, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates steady in the near term.
On a core basis—excluding the volatile food and energy categories—prices increased 0.2% from November and rose 2.6% compared with a year earlier. That annual reading matched November’s figure and marked the weakest pace of core inflation in nearly five years. Headline inflation, which includes all categories, rose 0.3% month over month and 2.7% year over year, in line with economists’ expectations.
While inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s long-term 2% target, the steady downward trend over the past year has eased concerns that elevated prices could derail economic growth. Policymakers have increasingly signaled that inflation now poses less of a threat than a potential slowdown in the labor market, a view supported by recent economic data.
Economists pointed to signs that underlying inflation pressures are genuinely cooling. Stephen Brown, an economist at Capital Economics, noted that December’s softer core reading came despite some price rebounds following unusually weak data in October and November. This, he said, suggests that inflation momentum has meaningfully slowed rather than temporarily paused.
The CPI report follows last week’s December jobs data, which showed the unemployment rate pulling back from a four-year high. Together, the inflation and labor market reports have strengthened investor confidence that the Federal Reserve will leave interest rates unchanged at its January 27–28 policy meeting. Futures market data from CME Group now indicate a roughly 95% probability that rates will remain steady.
A closer look at the report revealed mixed price trends for households. Food inflation remained a notable pressure point, with food prices rising 0.7% in December, outpacing overall inflation. Five of the six major grocery store food categories posted monthly increases, including grains, dairy, fruits, and beverages. Only meat prices declined, slipping 0.2% during the month.
Offsetting some of those pressures were declines in several key core categories. Used car and truck prices fell 1.7% in December, while airline fares dropped 0.5%. Transportation services overall also declined by 0.5%, helping keep core inflation contained.
Energy prices provided additional relief. Gasoline prices plunged 5.3% in December amid falling oil prices, contributing to a 2% monthly decline in the energy index. These declines helped temper headline inflation despite higher food costs.
Nationwide chief economist Kathy Bostjancic described the report as “very encouraging,” adding that it supports expectations that lingering tariff-related pressures on goods prices will fade in 2026. As inflation continues to cool and economic growth remains resilient, markets and policymakers alike appear increasingly confident that the worst of the inflation surge is firmly in the past.
